I Remember at our last Converse, you was pleas'd to ask me, Whether I did not much admire, that the Scots should so moderately temper themselves in Parliament, as to the Duke's suppos'd being a Papist, after that Point had been so severely Prosecuted by our late English Representatives?

To which, Sir taking my self somewhat better prepar'd now, to return you an Answer, than I was then, I must say, That if England made it a matter of Conscience, as to it's Religion and Interest, it was no less questionable, if Scotland would Conspire on the same Account: Not that I believe they are in Love with Popery more than we, but rather hold it proper to dispose their ends by a more grateful Byass, than by touching on that point. And if all this be attributed to the deference of their Natures, the calmness of their Obedi­ence, together with a general Reluctancy of their past Transactions, their Intentions, perhaps, may be much mi­staken. And, for my part, I should be loth to oblige them so far, as to Credit their Actions instead of their Design and Meaning.

And since you have thus occasion'd my Freedom, cer­tainly, Sir, if this be well inspected, it must discover a strange [Page 2]knack of Scottish Policy, where it is predominant. Or what does it otherwise appear, than that they would chuse to be the Duke's on the most extraordinary and dangerous ac­count, in respect of the opposition of England (though in point of Religion) that can at any time befall his Interest.

And all this too with such an exceeding Manifestation of pretended Loyalty, that it must seem to surpass all Queries or Boundaries whatsoever. Unless in the future, or rather as oc­casion best offers, they let loose some Reserv'd or Tacit Con­ception, whereby they may, on good Terms to themselves, impede such their Indefinite Assurances, as they never intended beyond a more beneficial Emergency, whensoever it should happen. A Method very suitable to the usual Obscurity of Scotch Integrity and Principles, as also how considerably they are generally qualify'd and convey'd, cannot be the doubt of any that have well perceiv'd the dissipation of such Mists, as have guided not a few of their late and former Ma­nagements.

And to be home with them, I doubt not to affirm, That under whatsoever Circumstances the Duke appears to be most Arbitrary dispos'd, relating to the present Juncture and Com­plexion of the English Nation, the more acceptably will his Concern be espous'd and influenc'd by some present Scottish Concurrence. Because that less than so full a mis-understand­ing cannot amply enough advance their hopes, or what they would attain from England thereby. As also, that an Exorbitant Interest embrac'd on their part, (if by any acci­dent Improv'd) will give more unlimited Scope and Cause of quarrel, in order to such Acquisitions, that may most profi­tably and largely answer their Endeavours. Whereas other­wise, they must be Assistants on Terms and Limitations, which might not so pregnantly Correspond with not a few Scottish Inclinations.

And I take it for no small Error in whosoever does Judge, that by any Court-Design of the Dukes, or any body for him, that the Scots seem at present so hot in his behalf.

Whereas it is manifest, that nothing more could consist with their Arbitrary Politicks, relating to England, than to be such as he found them. It being held, I suppose, ano­ther kind of advantage for them, to take upon them Loyal­ty [Page 3]at large, especially where they found it might be resented by our Nation, (as in case of the Duke's Belief and Succession) than could possibly accrue to them by any Limitations of Confederacy, or by prescribing a few Articles of Reformati­on, as was their late Covenant; by reason the latter could only operate on our Perswasions, or Consciences, without any probable alteration of our Interest to any compleat Scotch purpose. Whereas the former does conclude far more in point of Expectation; or what may emerge from the Ani­mosities and Discomposure of their Neighbour Nation.

But to shew you, Sir, how perfectly they watch all advan­tages, in opposition to us, and withall, how little they are kind to the suppos'd Belief of his Highness. I dare assure that Gentleman, That in Case there had been first any Con­descention obtain'd from the Parliament of England, as to his conceiv'd Perswasion, or that we had been on any Terms reconcil'd to his Succession on that account, he should soon have found the greatest part of those in that Nation, that seem so earnestly to hope (though perhaps but to better their National Sun-shine) for his Rising to a Throne, to have been so far provok'd by our Compliance, as to have prov'd his most Zealous Opposites. And I am confident, That if ever our State shall be so Temper'd, as to make any Expedient for his Succeeding to our Scepter, that they will soon Recoil, or be more ready to Reject him, than ever he perceiv'd from the Breath of a House of Commons. And this might have been, vice versa, another Interest at large, not at all unsuita­ble to the Complicated Genius of that Nation. On which account that Royal Person is not to hope that the Scots (in respect of the Circumstances he is under) will ever so much Conduce to his advantage as their own. And which they can improve and alter as best fits the Cast of their Affairs. To be sure, their Designes shall always be so disproportion'd to his, that where he ventures much, they will be sure to hazzard little. For Example, There is no man can doubt, (from Reasons al­ready mention'd) but they would assist him (if time call'd) to be as Arbitrary as he could make himself in England, provided they might share likewise there, on the same account.

But he should be certain at the same Time to have less advantages in Scotland, or at least such as are not worth the [Page 4]least considerable Jewel of the English Diadem. Besides that Scotland, by our late Martial Conflicts with that Nation, is well enough known to be rather in a Condition to Traffick with a War, whereby to make their returns in Money, than any ways Soul'd or Capacitated to go much further with the English Nation.

And it may be no Politick mistake to Judge, that all their outward glossing Demeanours towards his Highness, at this present have not much a larger Compass; at least, Scots are not so Imprudent, as not to be Contented with what they can obtain, instead of what they would otherwise pretend to, when their Acquiescence is throughly requir'd by Force. And this was well perceiv'd in their Rendition of the late King for a Sum of Money, when at the same time they seem'd to be acted by another kind of Conscience: A Consideration that may deserve a due Concernment from his Highness, if ever so unfortunate as to survive his Royal Brother, and at the same Instant not held Capable of being Enthron'd by the free consent of an English Parliament: Insomuch that all the most palliated Assurances the Duke can effect by any means on the Scotch Nation, may tend rather, in the end, to his haz­zard and Personal Deprivation, than any Progress towards the English Soveraignty.

And certainly it will be very hard for Scotland to Impose on England, on any Terms, a Point so well known to them, that I am confident they will venture nothing more on any such account, than what tends to better themselves by some Tem­porary Advantages, unless they see the Course of things ac­cidentally tempt them further, than any Judicious Prospect can at present assure them. Howsoever, it will lye in their Pow­er, that where they cannot make their Accessions Concurrent with the Duke's, they will still be in a Capacity to Decline him when they please, and by which means they may so order their Designs, as not to come off Loosers. And if I were that worthy Gentleman, I should not expect much sounder Proceedings from that People: For though it may be soon granted, that many Eminent of the Scotch would much ra­ther be Great and Splendid Courtiers at London, than as they stand shaded at Edinburgh. Yet, were I a Popish Successor, (as some body is suppos'd to be) I should as hardly be brought [Page 5]to rely on Scottish Faith for my Enthronement in England, as I could believe at the same time one of their High-land Moun­tains was deliver'd of a Mouse, that next cross'd the Sea into Ireland, as a miraculous Token of my Assurance and Success.

If Scots, in the late Kings time, with some proneness ap­pear'd provok'd, by reason of a few Ceremonious Niceties in matters of Worship, to abandon the Ecclesiastical and Civil Authority of their Prince, would not a Man admire that a Representative of the same People should appear in earnest to swallow a Popish Successor (if so) at one Gub? Or that a­ny Body, or they themselves, can conceive their Faith, Allegi­ance, or Manners more improv'd in the Latter, than they would be thought in the former? Certainly no: Yet this seems much like the Juggle that these profound Subjects of the North would put upon Heaven, their Prince, and their Neighbour Nation, and that with no less a Confidence, than their publick Authority and Test to that purpose.

If it be alledg'd in their behalf, that through their Self-conviction, in relation to former Crimes and disobedience, they have reduc'd themselves to a more obsequious or fuller Duty, than they have acknowledg'd in foregoing times; a ra­tional Man might well admire how this should just fall upon their Understandings, with the Duke of York's Reception; or on what account they would impart themselves to the World better Christians, or Subjects, occasion'd from the Duke's O­pinion or Presence, than they had been Character'd at other Seasons; a Query that might require a Solution from them­selves, when they Judge it convenient to be render'd.

In the mean time, the Residence of the Duke amongst them, has not only spread the largeness of their Expecta­tions, incident to his and their Methods, as possibly they may be manag'd; buy has likewise exceedingly warm'd their very general and longd esires, of having the face and beneficial repute of a Court continu'd in Scotland: A thing that cannot but be very Commodious to a poor and low Interested People in other Respects; the withdrawing of which they have never took well from England, since the U­nion of the Kingdoms, well knowing that what it has added to us, is in some measure substracted from them. An Ope­ration so prevalent on the Pride and profitable parts of their [Page 6]Understandings, and for which England has so much of their Odium, that I assure any self, whensoever the Duke shall re­move his Being from that Kingdom, they will take it very hai­nously at his Hands, it not occasion him to repent that he ever bestow'd his Presence so long within their Climate: un­til at last, if destitute of real quarrel, (instead of which their Inventions are luxuriant enough to furnish them with what is equivolent to serve as well) they ground not only a high distate on his Removal, but expect such a continu'd warm­ness from a Court, that 'tis likely they may demand no less than its permanent Influence amongst them ever after. And this I conceive may probably conclude the Acknowledgments that the Duke may have from their gratitudes hereafter, which cannot proceed from any other Motive than their aversions to England, together with their Apprehension that the Duke should be any thing here, instead of what they design him there. And you may be assur'd, that it is more from the neglect he has receiv'd from England, and which they hope to improve, than from any reallity of Scotch Duty, or Fa­vours, that he has found such a welcome from them.

And if so, the prospect that his Highness can have from Scotland (though fill'd enough with themselves) will add lit­tle to his Concern in England: At least, if his Interest be no otherwise intended there, than as he stands on worse terms here (of which there is too much ground to doubt) and gives him too much Assurance, that if he could accord the Sense of this Nation he should sufficiently diminish his Repu­tation with them, in respect it is so hard to unite Interests on any account, as we stand under one Monarch. On which Consideration I cannot perceive what future good can accrue to the Duke by any Intrigue with that People. 'Tis true, they may enable him more, perhaps, to hazzard, on his Account and theirs together, the Rule he may claim in England; but it is far more probable, that they shall never be able to perfect by their Attempts his advance to our Throne, since by Armes they may be Judged not to be e­nough strengthen'd to accomplish that work. As on the o­ther side, there is no less danger that their understandings by means of their Interest (as has been instanc'd already) will never fully guide them to comply with any accord that might tend [Page 7]to the Duke's Reconcilement with England, unless they are well paid for the Bargain: Which shews enough of the dou­ble-face, or various contrivance of the Scots at this present. And may Alarm the Duke, that he may as soon be relinquish'd for some ends, as be assisted for other, by Scotch Loyalty. And if I were his Highness, I should judge it much the same, (if not better) to intermix none of my Interest (as to England) with Scottish Intrigues rather than to forward their Capa­city of advantaging themselves by my Prejudice, when they find it consistent with their Affairs.

Besides all this, there is nothing more uncertain than to make out what is properly, or what shall continue the above­board Scotch Interest, if we strictly tax either their Religion, Honour, or Profit.

For as it may be allow'd a Maxim of State, That a poor Nation will least of all within it self entirely Conspire either in Duty, Allegiance, or the like, (whereas all motives to a rich People are far sooner united or comprehended, there be­ing less Temptation to their Dissentments) so they will never be without such variety of Prospects, as may most improve what they would foresee in future, but still with this reserve, that whensoever one Party shall be allow'd most predominant in point of Concern and Emolument, that the other shall be sure to be wav'd, or take occasion to face about with them, as things shall best Operate for such a Conversion of Thoughts and Principles. And this may be readily observ'd in the pre­sent posture of Scotch managements, where we find not on­ly a double-fac'd Interest of Religion and Designs, but no less a Person than the Earl of Argile visibly the Head of a ve­ry considerable Party. By which means, and his Eminency in that Nation, together with his late prevented Destruction, there is largely Convey'd, and no less quicken'd, as full a concern (if not greater) of that People, as what can be call'd the Dukes Party there. And what does this Import more, than that if they cannot rise with him, there shall be enough in readiness against him, or to prevent their falling with him?

And it cannot be deny'd, but this kind of Collusion has accidentally conferr'd something to what concerns the English there. Whilst being divided as will ever be their Talent) in their sense of what is to be propagated as their largest Inte­rest, [Page 8]they have much abated the Prejudice that England might otherwise receive from thence, on any account. So that if I take nothing from the Honour of the Earl of Argile, or his proceedings there, as to his particular Person, with other his Adherents, I may well affirm, That as their Designs seem variously Complicated, so there appears no less an Intention in some, to oblige themselves by having it in their Power, to comply with England when they judge fit, than there is in others to be advanc'd by their Opposition.

Nay, such as will daily more improve towards us from them, as their mis-understandings shall continue, or be heightned most for their several purposes. A Policy that they find them­selves necessitated unto, from our precedently declaring against a Popish Successor. Which I am very confident, in general, they resent so much for no other reason, as that they did not do it first themselves. Whereby they might have en­larg'd, or spread more their Interests than perhaps they believe they now can. And I doubt not, had we first made an ex­pedient for the Duke, (notwithstanding his Perswasion) their Nation had more universally oppos'd it, than any thing that has accru'd from late Transactions. And in Consequence, (as before touch'd) was a loss of opportunity, not easie to be repair'd, in being more absolutely themselves, whatsoever they may pretend to the contrary, or may redound to us on the same account, whereas missing of that emergency, they must be enforc'd to be more narrow and straitned in their Principles and Managements, whensoever they imploy any Opposition against England.

And this cannot at all be doubted, if consider'd how far they stand sway'd and notion'd by the most strict Conduct of reformed Doctrine, and which has dispers'd too many Seeds to be soon choak'd by any other Method of Devotion.

From which they can in no measure assure themselves of the like entireness of Designs, and consequently Success. For the hot Party of Protestants being certainly the more numerous, and thence the most powerful of that Nation, will never suffer long their hopes to be muffled by the proceeding of such that tend to more uncertain and difficult attainments; and what would in effect bid their Expectations depend upon greater Improbabilities and Disadvantages, than the eager [Page 9]and necessitous Complexion of that People will stand pre­par'd to endure.

Thus, though we find at this time the Body of that State represented in Parliament to be very obsequious to the Dukes Interest, yet we must not look upon their Parliaments to be of that lasting and soundness of Resolution, as we prove ours to be in England. By reason that Scotch Parliaments, in re­spect of the general exigents of that People, (and such as so ve­ry often inflame them to a Discomposure) insomuch that their Representative has not only been sometimes call'd with­out other consent, than that of the People, but also inforc'd to comply by altering Conducts and Interests suitable to the most prevalent Motives of its Nation; of which there are not a few Examples throughout their History.

And indeed, considering their Condition of Life, and the Freedom the pretend to, it cannot be expected to find them long in one Temper; at least, such as can bring them no greater Assurances, than the Dukes personal Favours and Con­cern can amount to. On which account I cannot but wish, as I honour his Highness, that he would not expect more from them, than they certainly perceive most facile for their ends. If he should, a very great Person would soon find his Condition not at all easie amongst them.

From all which, Sir, you may, in short, perceive much of the bottom of the Dukes Station in Scotland, and how that People stand as to him, themselves, and Us, on several accounts: With what will loosen, or induce most their Temporal com­plyance (for to belong fix'd they neither can nor will be) in reference to the particulars I have mention'd. From all which I shall not swell this Letter so far, as in it to predict Conclu­sions. But rather chuse to leave that Perspective (ha­ving only undertaken to convey your Eye to a small Casement that opens towards the North) unto your more mature Deliberation and Science in State Con­cernments.

To be short, there is a Critical Conjuncture, that will soon display its Effects, I heartily wish to the good of both Kingdoms.

If my apprehensions have otherwise guided my Con­jectures, I shall most readily Congratulate the mistake of my Suppositions; though, as yet, I do not perceive a probability of their failure. Thus, Sir, according to your desires, I have given you a brief view, as it lies within my understanding, of such Occurrences as seem not a little to Influence the Affairs of the Scottish Nation: And rest,